Two matchdays. The five-point cushion held at the London Stadium — Trossard 83', Wilson chalked off in stoppage time. PSG waiting in Budapest. Every remaining fixture — form, standings, rest — side by side.
The London Stadium gave us the script we feared and we walked out of it anyway. Trossard at 83, Raya's outstretched leg, and a stoppage-time Wilson goal chalked off for a foul on the keeper — the kind of overnight that ages a manager. Five points clear, two to play. Beat Burnley at home on Monday the 18th and the league is ours — provided City drop points at Palace on Wednesday the 13th. If they win, we wait one more week.
City took 3-0 at Brentford on Saturday — Doku, Haaland, Marmoush — and the gap briefly closed to two before Trossard restored it. The schedule still favours us: Palace at the Etihad first, then Wembley for the FA Cup final on the 16th, then Bournemouth two days after that. PSG took 6-5 on aggregate at the Allianz on Wednesday and Luis Enrique's lot are coming for us in Budapest on the 30th. Ben White hobbled off at the London Stadium — one to watch. Cold heads. Full XI. No peeking.
The schedule has flipped this from "anxious" to "amusing." City play Palace at the Etihad on the 13th — fourteen days before any Conference League final in Leipzig. We play them at Selhurst on the 24th, three days before it. If we’ve done our jobs at West Ham and against Burnley, the trophy is decided before we make the trip south of the river — and Palace, with a European final on Wednesday and a manager who knows what bench rotation looks like, are the kindest possible last fixture you could draw.
If we haven't finished the job by then, the maths still favours us. Five points clear with two to play, with goal difference now +42 vs +40, means City need to take the lot — Palace, Bournemouth, Villa — and overhaul the GD column too. Selhurst on the 24th becomes a coronation in waiting either way: if it's already done, it's a parade; if it isn't, we're facing a B-team with nothing left.
Atlético home and away, Fulham at the Emirates, and now West Ham on the road — all banked. The London Stadium has been a thing of dread for this lot more than once; we walked out with three points and the cushion intact. The European tax everyone was warning about? Paid in full. Ben White's exit is the one to watch ahead of Budapest.
City won 3-0 at Brentford on Saturday and the gap briefly closed to two. Then Trossard at 83, then the Wilson VAR call. +5 with two to play, and goal difference at +42 vs +40. A win at Burnley locks it; even draw-and-loss leaves City needing the lot — Palace, Wembley, then Bournemouth two days after the FA Cup final. The margin is real.
Mon the 18th of May at the Emirates against Burnley. Beat them and we're champions — provided City don't beat Palace at the Etihad on the 13th. Per the Premier League's own permutation note, a City draw or Palace win opens the door for us to lift it at home, on a Monday, under floodlights. A City win and we wait until Selhurst on the 24th.