Two matchdays. The lead's been cut to two — City 3-0 Palace at the Etihad, goal difference flipped. PSG waiting in Budapest. Every remaining fixture — form, standings, rest — side by side.
Foden ran the Etihad on Wednesday and the maths got harder overnight. City 3-0 Palace — Semenyo, Marmoush, Savinho — and our five-point lead is two. Worse: City have flipped goal difference, +43 to our +42. The Monday-night clinch we'd been writing about is gone. There's no City league game between Burnley on the 18th and our final-day trip to Selhurst on the 24th — no favour coming from Manchester.
Earliest the trophy can lift now is Tuesday the 19th: beat Burnley on Monday, then hope Bournemouth take points off City on the south coast the next night. Otherwise it's Sunday the 24th — us at Selhurst, City vs Villa at the Etihad, simultaneous kickoff at 4pm. Win our two and we're champions, full stop. Slip with City winning out and the title goes to Manchester on goal difference. This is the run-in we asked for. We just got it the hard way.
City's win at the Etihad cancelled the Monday-night clinch path — and probably the Tuesday-night one too. Realistically this goes to the final day: Arsenal at Selhurst, City vs Villa at the Etihad, both kicking off at 4pm. The whole season on a phone screen, split between two cameras. Palace, with a Conference League final at the Allianz three days later, are still the kindest possible last fixture you could draw — Glasner will rotate, the legs will know it.
The good news: we control it. Two clear, two to play, both teams level on games. Win at Burnley and even a draw at Selhurst gives us a chance, provided City slip somewhere. Win them both and the trophy is ours regardless of what happens in Manchester. The bad news: City have flipped goal difference (+43 vs +42), so a level-on-points finish hands them the title. Win the games. Don't watch the goals.
Atlético home and away, Fulham at the Emirates, and now West Ham on the road — all banked. The London Stadium has been a thing of dread for this lot more than once; we walked out with three points and the cushion intact. The European tax everyone was warning about? Paid in full. Ben White's exit is the one to watch ahead of Budapest.
City took 3-0 at home to Palace on Wednesday — Foden running it, Semenyo and Marmoush and Savinho on the sheet — and the lead's now two points, with City ahead on GD (+43 vs +42). Two wins and the title is ours regardless of Manchester. Anything less and the goals column starts mattering. The margin we had a week ago is gone.
Beat Burnley at the Emirates on Mon 18 May, then hope Bournemouth do us a favour at the Vitality on the Tuesday. That's the only path to lifting it before the final day. Otherwise Sun 24 May — Selhurst at 4pm, simultaneous kickoff with City vs Villa — settles it. Win out and it's done, no calculator required.