Burnley Monday, Bournemouth-City Tuesday — the title could be won inside 72 hours. Two points clear, GD flipped, PSG waiting in Budapest. Every remaining fixture — form, standings, rest — side by side.
Here's the picture, sharp and small enough to fit on a beermat. Beat Burnley at the Emirates on Monday and we're on 82. The next night, City go to the Vitality off Wembley legs. Any result other than a City win and the title is ours that night — a Bournemouth draw clinches it, a Bournemouth win clinches it. Only a Pep three-pointer pushes it to the final day. Two clean ones from us, one slip from them, and we're champions by Tuesday night — won not on a pitch but on a sofa, watching Bournemouth do the work.
City beat Palace 3-0 on Wednesday — Foden running it, Semenyo, Marmoush, Savinho on the sheet — and the cushion's two with goal difference flipped (+43 vs +42). Then Wembley yesterday, then the south coast on Tuesday. Short rest, long travel, against a mid-table Bournemouth with nothing to lose and a manager who'll relish the chance. There's a window. Burnley first. Don't peek.
The Bournemouth result decides the shape of the next ten days. City slip at the Vitality — even one dropped point — and we go to Selhurst on the 24th already champions, the bus tour planned, the away end singing for fun. City win, and it's a sudden-death final day: Arsenal at Selhurst, City vs Villa at the Etihad, both kicking off at 4pm, the whole season on a phone screen split between two cameras.
Either way, Palace are the kindest possible last fixture. They've got a Conference League final at the Allianz three days after we visit — Glasner will rotate, the legs will know it. The good news: we control it. Win our two and the trophy is ours regardless of what happens in Manchester. The bad news: City have flipped goal difference (+43 vs +42), so a level-on-points finish hands them the title. Win the games. Don't watch the goals.
Atlético home and away, Fulham at the Emirates, and now West Ham on the road — all banked. The London Stadium has been a thing of dread for this lot more than once; we walked out with three points and the cushion intact. The European tax everyone was warning about? Paid in full. Ben White's exit is the one to watch ahead of Budapest.
City took 3-0 at home to Palace on Wednesday — Foden running it, Semenyo and Marmoush and Savinho on the sheet — and the lead's now two points, with City ahead on GD (+43 vs +42). Two wins and the title is ours regardless of Manchester. Anything less and the goals column starts mattering. The margin we had a week ago is gone.
Beat Burnley at the Emirates on Mon 18 May and we're on 82. The next night, City go to the Vitality off Wembley legs — any result other than a City win and the title is ours that night. A Bournemouth draw does it. A Bournemouth win does it. Only a Pep three-pointer pushes it to Sun 24 May: Selhurst at 4pm, simultaneous with City vs Villa, the whole season decided live.